Dansby's Dirt: UFC 102 Couture vs. Nogueira on August 29, 2009
The following entry was written by BSN Assistant Vice President and Kickboxer Stuart Dansby.
BSN is the official nutritional supplement provider of the UFC.
To read more of Dansby’s Dirt, go to BSNOnline.net.
UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira on August 29, 2009
Is two in a row too many to be champion?
This Saturday night, August 29, 2009, Dana White and company will present UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira from the Rose Garden arena in Portland, Oregon and airing live on Pay-Per-View. For years the main event matchup for this card has been hypothesized and debated over with much passion. Those times, however, were usually when these two former heavyweight champions were at the tops of their respective thrones – the UFC for Couture and PRIDE for Nogueira. These days, their individual status, and the status of a few of the other top-level fighters on this card, remains a question mark, as this event promises to be one of redeeming championship dreams, or perhaps of a fading away to lesser cards, and lesser fight leagues.
On this weekend’s card, there are five of six fighters in the main card matchups that are currently in title contention, and four of them are coming off a loss. Four of those fighters have five or more losses. Once you start adding up those numbers, it makes for an unforgiving reality. Randy “The Natural” Couture, Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira, Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine, and Thiago Silva are all coming off of defeats that were, to say the least, harsh, albeit by top contenders or current champions. On the other hand, Nate Marquardt seems to be once again smashing his way through the middleweight division and is better than he’s ever been. He also has eight career losses and two draws. None of these men can afford too many more defeats before they stop getting top billing in the eyes of the UFC and, more importantly, MMA fans. What really makes the difference though is in the fighters’ own eyes and their internal confidence. What happens to a man like “Minotauro” Nogueira, who had never been knocked out before, when Frank Mir easily outboxes him and earns a TKO victory over him in the second round of his last fight? Was that an aberration, or were the 36 previous hard-fought and brutally physical battles just too much for his body and mind to endure? How does the previously unbeaten Thiago Silva respond after being knocked out and humbled by current UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida? Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (top five coolest nicknames of all time) has lost to the likes of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva, and yet has beaten Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin. At 33, if he loses two in a row… well, is there still a chance that he or any of these guys will be a champion? And most importantly for each one of these guys: if they lose two in a row, where does their career head? Where does their head head?
The combined winning percentage of all five current UFC champions is at 90%. The combined winning percentage of the five fighters mentioned above is 78%. A quick look at the loss records for the current champs shows only B.J. Penn with five losses, and three of them came at a different weight class than where he holds his belt. The best fighter in the land, Anderson “The Spider” Silva, has four losses, but those are ancient history, as he is currently on a UFC-record 10-fight win streak. The combined number of losses and draws of the current five UFC champions is nine. The combined number of losses and draws of the five fighters mentioned above, each literally fighting to get to a title shot, is 33. This is not coincidence. Make no mistake – Jardine, Marquardt, Nogueira, Couture, and Silva all need wins here to continue on their quest. For some it will be so… for others, this fight may start an inevitable descent towards the downside of their careers. Enjoy their technique, bravado, energy and spirit now. Appreciate their valor. Punishment is harsh in this sport, and careers are fleeting.
As for the picks and who will win what… I can only surmise the following:
Nate Marquardt (28-8-2) will just plain beat up Demian Maia (10-0) and probably won’t be stopped again until he meets “The Spider.”
Brandon “The Truth” Vera (10-3) will not slow down the fast-rising star of Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1). And this guy is definitely going places.
Thiago Silva (13-1) will beat Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (14-5-1), although this will be close… very close.
And then there is our headliner and main event: Randy “The Natural” Couture (16-9) against Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira (31-5-1). I have vacillated (not the same thing Georges St-Pierre is accused of putting on his body) on this every day for the last month. The problem is that I really like both of these guys as fighters, and they both have good stand-up and even better ground games. So, here goes, Nogueira wins. Don’t know how. Don’t have a F@#$%^ clue, except for the fact that it won’t be with a high kick.
Thanks for reading and have a powerful day!
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